- A huge source of alpha is asset allocation.Like somebody did a recent studywith the Norwegian pension planand they found that more than 90% of their alphacame from asset allocation.(bright upbeat music)- Ravi, thank you so much for joining us today.It's great to have you here.- Thanks for having me here.- Ravi, back when I was a portfolio manager many moons ago,there was only,I think about a few hundred ETFs out there in the world.And now we're looking at,I think almost 10,000 ETFs worldwide, something like that.Their growth in popularity doesn't seem to be stoppingso I wondered if you could give us a little bitof an update about what's driving the popularity in ETFs,what kind of product innovation you are looking at,clients are looking at,and really just give us an updateof where we are in that world today.- So in our world, we talk to institutional clientsand we also talk to wealth clients.So let me focus on the institutional clientsa little bit more since that's my role.And within institutional clients,the single biggest driverfor growth of ETFs has been liquidity.ETFs in many, many cases have become more liquidthan the underlying securities.So for example, if I use Russell 2000,the Russell 2000 ETF trades at a tighter bid-ask spreadand a lower transaction costthan many of the underlying securities.- Wow. - So if I wasan institutional investor and I want to quickly accessthe small-cap market using Russell 2000,I could very quickly do that using the ETFthat's based on Russell 2000,than the underlying stocks themselves.That's a simple exampleof why institutions are driving ETF adoption.- What about cost of ETFs?How's that changed over the years?- That's a great point.So as liquidity has gone up,happily for investors,the management fees have come down.And so if you look at the total cost of ownershipwhich is a sum of the cost to get in,the cost to get out and the management fee,that's been steadily declining,and that's been a huge reasonfor the increased adoption as well.- Now I used to work at a hedge fund,so our job is really stock picking.But have you seen an increase in liquidity?Have you seen different types of clientseven hedge funds moving into the ETF world?- Our largest client base are asset managers.- Yeah. - So the biggestasset managers in the world use are ETFs.And the reason is a couple of reasons.One, we talked about liquidity to get it in and get out.And the second bigger reasonis a huge source of alpha is asset allocation.Like somebody did a recent studywith the Norwegian pension planand they found that more than 90% of their alphacame from asset allocation.And so if you're doing asset allocation,then if you can find the right low cost building blocks,then you can get to alpha very, very efficiently.And so that's the second reason,especially a lot of the multi-asset strategiesthat have a combination of equities and fixed income,they use different low-cost building blocksto get to the right alpha.And so a combination of liquid and low-cost building blocksallow you to arrange the Lego piecesin a way that you can find your own alpha.So the world has moved on from active and passive.These sort of index building blocksare a source of alpha for active managers.That make sense?- [Jamie] It does. Yeah.People have perhaps got more into thematic tradingbecause these ETFs can be so granularin terms of what they're getting your exposure to.Is that... Does that sound right?- Totally right. So I feel like if you look at the example,if you were like an active managerand the value you're gonna getbetween picking a Verizon bond versus an AT&T bond,is this much.But choosing the right asset classis gonna have this much in alphacompared to the little sort of alphayou get in security selection between, you know,Ford and GM or Verizon or AT&T.So if you get the asset allocation right,there's a lot you have a lot going for you.And to do that, you need sort of liquid,easy to access building blocksand ETFs are serving a tremendous purpose in that selection.- So you talked about liquidity and I was an equities guyso I'm afraid I'm not an expertin the world of fixed income.But I can understand in inequitieshow liquidity can be readily available.But how does it work with fixed income products?'Cause a lot of these trade over the counter, you know,some of them are buyer and seller being matched, brokered,so how do bond ETFs work with underlying liquidity?- Yeah. Great question.If you like ETFs for additional liquidity,you will love ETFs for trading and fixed income,and here's how that works.Let's say you look at the high yield market.In the high yield market,the bonds in the high yield markethave a typical transaction costof something like 100 basis points.If you look at our liquid ETF,the transaction cost for that is about two basis points.- So, it's a 100 basis points.- 100 points of just transaction costs bid-ask spreadif you're trading the underlying high yield bonds.So a typical basket of high yield bondshas a bid-ask spread of 50 to 100 basis points, yeah?The ETF has a bid-ask spread of two basis points.And the reason for that is the ETF is an equity instrumentthat trades not over the counter but on an exchange.- I see, yeah. - That's the big difference.So the ETF almost serves on top of a liquidity layerthat's traded between two people on the exchangeand not through the over-the-counter market.So that's what the ETF have doneis liquified a difficult to accessand less liquid asset class,and that's made it sort of more attractivefor a lot of adopters to use itbecause they're paying far lower in transaction costs.- Ravi, what about periods of high volatility?I mean, during the pandemic, for example,a recent period of very high volatility.Was it difficult to find the true priceof some of these fixed income ETFsbecause, you know, the bid-ask spreads,there must have been big dislocation.So how do you knowwhat the sort of true underlying price was?- Another great question.So, every time there's a dislocation in the market,what actually trades is what are the securitiesthat trade on an exchange.So, fixed income is over the counter.It's harder to find the true priceof something that trades over the counter.But on an exchange, if you look at our big ETFs,they trade 10, 20,000 times a day.Even the most liquid bonds we're trading 20, 30 times a day.So where is the true market priceon something that trades 20,000 times a dayor something that trades 20 times a trade?- Yeah, fair point. - And what trades20,000 times a trade is the ETF,and that becomes the leader in liquidity.That is actually telling you where the true market is.And then the underlying bonds tend to catch up a day later.- [Jamie] So, it's actually- - So it leads the way-- [Jamie] Interesting.- In price discovery compared to the underlying bonds.- So actually fixed income ETFs have actually...They're a huge enhancement to trading bonds-- Massively. - Because-they've increased price. - Totally.Price transparency.Price discovery. - Price discovery.- Correct, and liquidity.So T-costs are lower,you actually find a true market price for exchanging risk,and you're able to do it at a very low bid-ask spread.- So sticking with fixed income.- Sure. - If we can, for a second.Rates were very, very low for such a long time.I can't imagine there was huge appetitefor that asset class.But as rates now seemingly are in the mid-single digits,are you seeing a lot more appetitefrom institutions for bond ETFs?- Yeah, I see two things have changed.There was a reasonably good appetite for bond ETFs,for liquidity reasons,for tactical reasons because people would say,"Listen, I wanna increase my exposureto say, corporate bonds."You look at a pension plans,they're always going to have a significant allocationto fixed income regardless of where rates are, right?That's just the balance in the portfolio.And for them, for example, they're like,"Hey, I'm gonna get a new active manager,but it's gonna take me six monthsto onboard the active manager.I'm gonna have something as a placeholder."And that placeholder used to be the ETFbecause it is very low cost to get in and get out.So those use cases have been going onfor a long time and they've been increasing constantly.So even in a low rate environment,those use cases were very useful to our clients.Now let's switch over to your questionwhich is in the high rate environment.Those use cases are still validbut what you also haveis a lot of people parking money in the short end.And at the short end,there's a whole bunch of ETFswhere you can park your moneyat the short end of the curve very quicklyand very efficiently to pick up the four,5% sort of yields that you want.So both in the low rate cycle and the high rate cycle,we are finding ETFs to have like enormous application.- Ravi, if you don't mind talking a little bit at BlackRock,how do the conversations go in terms of product innovation?Who comes up with the new ideas?Is it more client-drivenor is it more you guys sitting in an officethinking "What do we think our client's gonna want next?"- So for most time, we don't operate a lab.It's not like we have five peoplewith lab coats figuring outlike this is the next ETF (Jamie laughs)and then we bring it out and say, "Voila."That's not how it is, right?That's maybe the Apple modelbecause they're geniuses at stuff like that.In our world, we try to interact with clientswith index providers, lots of partners in the street,to figure out where, one, what our clients want.And it's rare for clients to come in and say,"I want X, Y, Z, ETF with this benchmark."Like that's long gone, right?It's more like what are the issues you're trying to faceand trying to read those themes out.Like you know, if inflation's an issue,like do we have the right product set for it?Work with index providers, you know,like Footsie to say, "Hey, can we sort that problem out?"That's the way product development sort of works.And oftentimes, clients call us and say,"You guys are the leaders in the ETF space.I'm thinking of doing X, Y, Z.Would you be able to help me?"And then we talk to more clients and say,"Can we build a little bit of a coalition of clientsto see if we have the same thing?"We've done something very similar in this casemany, many times in the past,and that's how we sort of operate.- The period from about 2013, 2014 to about 2020is what, in my head,I've got this period of huge liquidity,quantitative easing, whatever you would like to call it.And it became a very difficult marketfor stock picking in particular,more thematic trading was working better.Do you think nowthat we're returning to quantitative tighteningor higher rates or less liquidity in the market,is it now gonna become a marketwhere it's better for stock pickersand maybe less likely the ETS will be used as much?- Yeah, I think there'll always be some...There's always a space for both.There's some incredible stock pickerswho have an incredible knack and processfor security selection.We think that's very complimentaryto still using low cost liquid index building blocksto generate alpha.It's still complimentary for people having liquidity sleevesbecause they still need to take money in and out seamlesslyand at the lowest part of possible transaction costs.So we think there's a nice sort of coexistencebetween high conviction alpha stock pickingversus finding alpha through, you know,index allocation or through pure sort of index investing.All three coexist right nowin a lot of our client portfoliosand they'll continue to do that.So I feel like these thingsall are sort of very well jigsaw together.- Let's look at into the future.I guess by just what you're saying is this growth in ETFsis gonna keep going.You don't see any slow down in the near future?- Not even close.I think one of the biggest trends we're seeing,especially in the wealth space,is the use of model portfolios.And what's happening here is that a lot of moneyis moving into sort of index productsbecause clients, asset managers, and advisory platformsare able to talk to clientsand use different low-cost building blocksespecially across different ETF providersacross different asset managers.So if I was an advisor and I want to tell my clientthat I've got the best products of BlackRockand two or three other competitors,that's a powerful story.That's a powerful story to take to an end client and say,"I've got the best of worlds of all these different people,"and these are called model portfolios.A lot of money is moving into model portfolios,and this is a trend that is going to continueand we will see in the trillions of dollars moving to it.If I would say there is one big trend,this is the single biggest trendwe're gonna see in the next few yearswith trillions of dollars moving into model portfoliosto be used by sort of end investors and that's the spacewe think there's enormous innovation that's happening,that's the space we are very committed toand working with sort of index providers like Footsie,working with lots of our partnersto see how we can collectively grow that space.- How about the interactions with retail?Are retail becoming a growing part of your customer baseor are they staying roughly the same in terms of-- Growing part again, for exactly this trendbecause a lot of investorsare finding that if I can use the best products,the best ideas for multiple different asset managers,and if there's someone who can put all this togetherand so I don't have to pickbetween the two of them, that'll be great.If I was retail investor, I don't wanna have to findwhich is the next biggest mega trend.Is it robotics?Is it, you know, something in biotech like, I don't know.But if I had someone else doing that for me,that would take the brain damage off of me.And that's where againETFs become the building blocksto put these little you know, portfolios together,and become an important partof the client's, you know, overall portfolio.So, this trend is here for the future.And if we offer liquidity and convenience,like convenience is a very powerful factor,this becomes so convenient for them to say,"Yeah, I've got the best of all thisand I don't have to worry about it."That becomes great for advisors and their clients.- Ravi, that seems like a great place to finish.I wanna say thank you so much.This has been a great conversation.- I appreciate it.Thanks for having me.(bright upbeat music)
