Monthly report
Treasuries await Fed, but signs of slower growth
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Overview
A de-synchronised easing cycle may start in June, with the ECB signalling a likely easing move, even if the Fed is some months from easing. This looks like a long, flat, U-shaped easing cycle, suggesting trading ranges persist on government bonds. Credit is still in a sweet spot, but spreads are getting tight.
Key highlights:
- Macro and policy backdrop – Less synchronised easing cycles ahead
- Yields, curves and spreads – Markets rally on inflation and front-run policy easing
- Credit and MBS analysis – Freddie moves to revive secondary mortgage market
- High yield credit analysis – Tight spreads beginning to impact HY credits?
- SI sovereign bond analysis – SI outperformance in 2024 partially reverses 2022-23
- Performance – Longer duration governments and linkers rallied, IG credit outperformed HY
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