Kieran Brophy
Jaakko Kooroshy
Brazil, UK, and UAE kick off NDC 3.0 announcements as COP29 gets underway following the US elections.
From climate finance to carbon markets, delegates in Baku are currently wrestling with a complex and often fractious climate negotiations agenda. But as explained in our COP29 Net Zero Atlas, we continue to focus on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) 3.0 – new 2035 emissions reductions targets that governments are expected to announce between COP29 and COP30.
What happened?
Halfway through COP29, we’re already seeing notable developments on the NDCs.
The U.S. elections arguably provided the first example. Post the November 5th election, the incoming administration appears unlikely to continue any current or forthcoming NDC targets and may exit the Paris Agreement for a second time.
In Baku, the host of last year’s COP28, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) became the first country to communicate its 2035 emissions reduction target. Brazil, host to next year’s COP swiftly followed suit and announced its own target. Meanwhile the UK became the first advanced economy to have announced its new national 2035 climate target.
Why does it matter?
Investors should take note as these targets put governments on the record in terms of the decarbonisation trajectory that they envisage for their national economies post 2030.
This also makes these targets a crucial signal for investors providing a forward-looking indicator of the levels of transition risks companies will face across sectors and regions.
In the COP29 Net Zero Atlas, we developed several scenarios to explore where G20 countries might set these targets. Below, we sketch our first take on the 2035 targets announced by G20 countries.
Brazil, next year’s COP host, is among the first out of the blocks
Figure 1. Historical and projected emissions for Brazil, including its 2035 NDC.[1] Along with Implied Temperature Rise for the 3 scenarios modelled in the Net Zero Atlas.
- Brazil has announced a 2035 target to reduce Green House Gas (GHG) emissions by 59-67% below 2005 levels.[2] It states that this range considers “variables in future scenario projections”. This compares to a 53.1% NDC reduction target by 2030.
- We estimate that achieving its NDC 3.0 would lower Brazil’s emissions to between 834 and 1,037 MtCO₂e by 2035 from 1,551 MtCO₂e in 2022.[3]
- The ambition expressed in Brazil’s NDC 3.0 appears to align with the ambition of the Paris Agreement. We estimate that the high end of this range aligns with a 1.9°C global warming trajectory – while the lower end would align with a 1.6°C pathway.
The UK releases ambitious, 1.5°C aligned 2035 target
Figure 2. Historical and projected emissions for the UK, including its 2035 NDC. Along with Implied Temperature Rise for the 3 scenarios modelled in the Net Zero Atlas.
- The UK has also announced an NDC 3.0 target. The UK government endorsed the recommendations of the independent Climate Change Committee[4] vowing to reduce emissions by 81% below 1990 levels by 2035.[5]
- This compares to a 68% reduction below 1990 levels for its 2030 target. Our calculations indicate this would reduce the UK’s GHG emissions to 134 MtCO₂e by 2035.
- The ambition expressed in the UK’s NDC 3.0 aligns with the aims of the Paris Agreement, with our estimates suggesting this target would put the UK on a 1.5°C aligned trajectory.
At COP29, LSEG remains committed to participating in a net-zero economy by supporting the development of key policies and frameworks. Through initiatives like the Net Zero Atlas and Decarbonisation of Equity Benchmarks, we provide insights that allow financial institutions and policymakers to achieve sustainable outcomes, integrating sustainability, data, and finance to enable sustainable growth and the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Stay up-to-date on all COP29 developments with our COP29 App on LSEG Workspace. Currently a Workspace user? Find the COP29 App.
For an in-depth analysis of potential 2035 targets for each G20 country, explore our COP29 Net Zero Atlas.
[1] Projected emission trajectories are based off the 3 scenarios outlined in the COP29 Net Zero Atlas: 1. Long Term Commitment (LTC) ambition – the minimum ambition needed for Brazil to meet its long-term commitment (net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050), 2. Paris Ambition – the ambition level needed for the world to stay well-below 2C as laid out in the Paris Agreement and 3. NDC2.0 ambition – the same level of ambition as shown in 2030 NDC (also known as NDC 2.0).
[2] Brazil’s NDC 3.0 [UNFCCC]
[3] Values are based on Assessment Report 4 (AR4) global warming potentials, and include emissions due to Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF).
[5] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-shows-international-leadership-in-tackling-climate-crisis
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