Kieran Brophy
Jaakko Kooroshy
Five G20 countries have announced new NDCs, while other major economies including China, India and the EU are yet to announce 2035 climate targets.
What is our NDC3.0 Tracker?
As part of the Paris process, governments worldwide are due to announce their 2035 national emission reduction targets in the lead-up to COP30, scheduled for the end of the year in Brazil. These new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), referred to as ‘NDCs 3.0’, play a critical role in defining national emissions pathways beyond 2030.
At which level countries set these targets matters to investors, as they will shape the economic trajectories of countries throughout the 2030s and influence both the transition and physical risks companies will encounter in the decades ahead. See our detailed analysis in our COP29 Net Zero Atlas published in November 2024.
In this NDC 3.0 Tracker, we evaluate targets announced by G20 members as they are being published and compare them to our projections and global climate goals, using our Implied Temperature Rise (ITR) framework.
Most G20 countries have missed the initial deadline for 2035 targets
Our tracker shows that so far five G20 countries – Brazil, Canada, Japan, the UK, and the US – have announced new 2035 targets. Two of these, Canada and Japan, formally submitted their targets to the UNFCCC most recently in February. The US goal was announced in December by the outgoing Biden administration, but is likely to remain symbolic as the new administration has formally notified the UNFCCC of the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.[1]
Meanwhile, most G20 members, including major economies such as China, India, and the EU are yet to announce 2035 NDCs and have missed the initially agreed UNFCCC deadline of February 10th. Several have however indicated plans to submit targets ahead of COP30 in Belem in November.[2,3]
New 2035 emissions targets compared to existing 2030 targets
| Country | 2030 target | 2035 target |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 53% below 2005 levels | 59–67% below 2005 levels |
| Canada | 40-45% below 2005 | 45–50% below 2005 levels |
| Japan | 46% below 2013 levels | 60% below 2013 levels |
| UK | 68% below 1990 levels | 81% below 1990 levels |
| USA | 50-52% below 2005 levels | 61–66% below 2005 levels (to be withdrawn) |
Summary of the 2030 and 2035 targets for G20 members. The full NDC registry can be found at https://unfccc.int/NDCREG.
LSEG’s NDC 3.0 Tracker
Analysing 2035 targets using our ITR framework provides insights to investors how these targets would compare to global climate goals and the NDC3.0 scenarios developed in our COP29 Net Zero Atlas. Below you can find our analysis for the five G20 members who have signalled their 2035 targets so far.
Use the arrow button below to progress to the next target analysis.
For an in-depth analysis of potential 2035 targets for each G20 country, explore our COP29 Net Zero Atlas.
Stay up-to-date on all national climate developments with our COP29 App on LSEG Workspace. Currently a Workspace user?
[1] As per executive order “Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements” [The White House]. Formal withdrawal takes effect one year after notification.
[2] Most big polluters to miss UN deadline for 2035 climate targets [Financial Times]
[3] China for example has said it will submit its policy by the end of the year [Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs]
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